NRDC Report Warns Trump Policies Could Erase Up to 540 GW of Renewables

The Natural Resources Defense Council says aspects of the Trump administration's energy policy, including the rollback of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, new tariffs, and offshore wind lease buybacks, could cause the U.S. to lose between 390 GW and 540 GW of new wind, solar, and energy storage capacity over the next decade.

The NRDC said in a Wednesday report that these lost projects are not being replaced with other power sources. "At most, only 9 GW of additional gas capacity is added with Trump's policies in place," the group said, citing near-term gas turbine supply chain bottlenecks, volatile fuel prices, and the cost-competitiveness of renewables relative to gas.

Cost impacts

The NRDC's report also forecasts that the power sector will spend $5 billion to $15 billion more on fossil fuels, while losing $45 billion in IRA tax incentives, relative to the group's January 2025 Snapshot case. The report projects average household electricity rates will increase by an additional 4.2% to 5.5% nationwide by 2035, relative to that same baseline case.

Policy stance

Amanda Levin, NRDC's director of policy analysis, said during a Tuesday press call that the group's modeling still anticipates "significant growth in renewables under this administration," but added that "we lose more than half of everything that we expected to be able to build with the combination of market forces and proactive policy." Levin said trends toward less efficient gas alternatives support the case against repealing the EPA's gas power plant emissions rule, which the Trump administration has said it intends to do.